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SCEC Workshop on Probabilistic Fault Displacement: Critical Issues, Data Needs, and Interface Plans

Conveners: Christine GouletAlexandra SarmientoTimothy DawsonYousef Bozorgnia
Dates: October 1, 2019
Location: Kellogg West Conference Center
SCEC Award and Workshop Report: 19201

SUMMARY: This workshop focuses on interface issues related to the development of new state-of-the-art probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) models. The goal of this workshop is to engage a broad community of participants who can contribute and benefit from the work and facilitate interactions across disciplines. We will cover the needs from industry, the features of the empirical database being developed, the plans for supplementing the dataset with fault rupture simulations, and the overall plans for model building.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.


09:00 - 09:30 Workshop Check-In  
  Session 1: Overview, Motivation, and Desired Outcomes
Yousef Bozorgnia, Moderator and Greg Lavrentiadis/Alexandra Sarmiento, Reporters
09:30 - 09:45 Welcome and Overview of Workshop Objectives (PDF, 292KB) Yousef Bozorgnia / Christine Goulet
09:45 - 10:15 Industry and Regulator Needs for Fault Displacement Hazard Assessments (PDF, 3.7MB) Chris Madugo
  Session 2: Current Datasets and Models
Yousef Bozorgnia, Moderator and Timothy Dawson, Reporter
10:15 - 10:45 Overview of in-prep Next-Generation Fault Displacements Database (PDF, 1.8MB) Alexandra Sarmiento
10:45 - 11:05 Current PFDHA Models Bob Youngs
11:05 - 11:15 Break  
  Session 3: New Models and Data Needs
Norm Abrahamson, Moderator and Alexandra Sarmiento, Reporter
11:15 Lightning Talk, PFDHA Modeling Group: Kuehn et al. (PDF, 618KB) Nico Kuehn
11:20 Lightning Talk, PFDHA Modeling Group: Abrahamson et al. (PDF, 715KB) Greg Lavrentiadis
11:25 Lightning Talk, PFDHA Modeling Group: Chen et al. (PDF, 570KB), (PDF, 3.5MB) Rui Chen / Chris Milliner
11:30 Lightning Talk, PFDHA Modeling Group: Nurminen et al. (PDF, 550KB) Fiia Nurminen
11:35 - 12:20 Discussion on modeling and data needs All
12:20 - 13:20 Lunch  
  Session 4: Simulations
Christine Goulet, Moderator and Greg Lavrentiadis/Alexandra Sarmiento, Reporters
13:20 - 13:40 Overview of Kinematic and Dynamic Rupture Simulations Rob Graves
13:40 - 14:00 Introduction to Dynamic Rupture Simulations Kyle Withers
14:00 - 14:20 Current Prospects for Validation and Forward Simulations for Fault Displacement (PDF, 2.4MB) Yongfei Wang, with All
14:20 - 14:50 Gaps in Database and Scenario Needs (PDF, 500KB) Alexandra Sarmiento, with All
14:50 - 15:05 Break  
15:05 - 17:00 Session 5: New Ideas and Next Steps
Yousef Bozorgnia, Moderator and Greg Lavrentiadis/Alexandra Sarmiento, Reporters
15:05 - 15:45 Lightning Talks (slideshow pre-submittal required): New Ideas and Perspectives  
  Off Strike Displacement of Reverse Faulting (PDF, 631KB) Robb Moss
  SURE Database (PDF, 754KB) Stéphane Baize
  Measuring Displacement with Optical Image Correlation Rob Zinke
  Empirical Data, Rupture at Fault Steps Glenn Biasi
  Modeling repeated coseismic slip to identify and characterize individual earthquakes from geomorphic offsets on strike-slip faults (PDF, 716KB) Ray Weldon
  Off-fault Deformation and Shallow Slip Deficit from Dynamic Rupture Simulations with Fault Zone Plasticity (PDF, 5.9MB) Kim Olsen
  New Tools to Measure Old Earthquakes Austin Elliott
  Rupture Measurement Error (PDF, 1.7MB) Mike Oskin
15:45 - 16:15 Discussion All
16:15 - 16:50 Workshop Recommendations and Future Plans Christine Goulet
16:50 - 17:00 Closing Comments Yousef Bozorgnia
17:00 Workshop Adjourns  

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