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How Physics-Based Earthquake Simulators Might Help Improve Earthquake Forecasts

Conveners: Ned Field and Nick Beeler
Dates: June 18, 2019
Location: Conference Room CUSGS Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, California
SCEC Award and Report: 19159

SUMMARY: Due to inevitable assumptions, approximations, and uncertainties, questions have persisted on the usefulness of multi-cycle physic-based earthquake simulators (e.g., RSQSim) with respect to forecasting earthquakes.  Whether any model is reliable or trustworthy depends entirely on what questions we are asking of it, so one goal of this workshop is to discuss the specific inferences we would like to make (e.g., as articulated in this recent opinion piece: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180299).  The other goal of the workshop is to identify which of these inferences might be legitimate or robust with respect to current state-of-the-art simulators, as well as what scientific and computational developments will be needed to make such models even more reliable with respect to forecasting earthquakes.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

TUESDAY, JUNE 18, 2019

08:00 - 08:30 Introduction - Background and Goals of the Workshop Ned Field
08:30 - 09:30 RSQSim In Detail Jim Dieterich
09:30 - 10:00 RSQSim and UCERF Bruce Shaw
10:00 - 11:00 Earthquake-Forecasting Inferences Exemplified Using RSQSim (PDF, 3.2MB) Kevin Milner
11:00 - 11:30 Introduction to Reality Checks – What physics is missing?  Can we add it?  Will it Matter? Nick Beeler
11:30 - 12:30 Lunch  
12:30 - 13:30 Physics in the Brittle Field Nadia Lapusta
13:30 - 14:00 Physics of the Brittle Ductile Transition (PDF, 2MB) Eric Dunham
14:00 - 14:30 Deep Crustal Processes in Earthquake Simulators (PDF, 4.1MB) Fred Pollitz
14:30 - 15:00 Perspectives from the SCEC Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS) Project (PDF, 2.3MB) Junle Jiang
15:00 - 16:30 Discussion and Other Lightning Talks on Usefulness of Current Physics-Based Earthquake Simulators (Moderated by Nick Beeler and Ned Field)  
16:30 - 17:00 Building and Summarizing Consensus (PDF, 49KB) Tom Jordan

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