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SCEC CSEP Workshop: OEF during the Ridgecrest Sequence and CSEP2 Progress

Conveners: Maximilian Werner (chair), Warner Marzocchi, David Rhoades, Thomas Jordan, and Andy Michael
Date: September 7, 2019
Location: Hilton Palm Springs Resort
Participants: 30 maximum
SCEC Award and Report: 19235

SUMMARY: This workshop is organised by the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), including representatives of the USGS and other international (non-) government agencies deploying Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) models. The goals of the workshop are i) to finalise CSEP2 priorities and to assess progress towards them at the multiple testing centers around the globe, ii) to discuss prospective and retrospective tests of UCERF3-ETAS (u3etas) and other OEF/OAF models during the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, iii) to manage CSEP software development at SCEC and elsewhere, and iv) to develop CSEP plans for the future.

To promote discussion and due to logistics, the workshop is limited to 30 participants. Interested participants should contact the workshop conveners to inquire about space availability.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2019

08:30 - 09:00 Workshop Check-In  
  Session 1: the Ridgecrest Sequence I
Andy Michael (moderator) and David Rhoades (reporter)		  
09:00 - 09:10 Welcome and Overview of Workshop Objectives Max Werner
09:10 - 09:25 USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts (PDF, 1.1MB) Jeanne Hardebeck
09:25 - 09:40 Coulomb Stress/Rate-State Forecasts (PDF, 3.0MB) Simone Mancini
09:40 - 09:55 U3etas forecasts (PDF, 3.1MB) Kevin Milner
09:55 - 10:30 Discussion
  • Are real-time data products good enough for OAF?
  • What have we learned from the Ridgecrest sequence?
  • When is the Coulomb hypothesis useful?  
 All
10:30 - 10:40 Break  
  Session 2: the Ridgecrest Sequence II
Dave Jackson (moderator) and Max Werner (reporter)		  
10:40 - 10:55 U3etas evaluations & development of CSEP2 tests Bill Savran
10:55 - 11:20 Future UCERFs Ned Field
11:20 - 12:00 Discussion: 
  • Faults, fault models and the earthquakes in-between
  • What are useful tests of stochastic-event-set forecasts?
  • What lessons from Ridgecrest for future UCERFs?
 All
12:00 - 13:00 Lunch  
  Session 3: Global Perspectives on CSEP and OEF
David Rhoades (moderator) and Andy Michael (reporter)		  
13:00 - 13:15 CSEP Italy (PDF, 790KB) Giuseppe Falcone
13:15 - 13:30 CSEP NZ (PDF, 3.7MB) David Rhoades
13:30 - 13:45 CSEP Japan (PDF, 3.0MB) Yosi Ogata
13:45 - 14:00 CSEP China Yongxian Zhang
14:00 - 14:15 CSEP2@SCEC: status and plans Bill Savran
  A revised global hybrid seismicity model based on interseismic strain rates and earthquake-catalog information José A. Bayona Viveros
14:15 - 14:30 Discussion
  • Progress towards CSEP2 objectives
  • Global collaboration
  • Update on European RISE project
 All
14:30 - 14:40 Break  
  Session 4: Earthquake Rupture Simulators & Machine Learning
Bill Savran (moderator) and Kevin Milner (reporter)		  
14:40 - 14:55 Forecasts based on RSQSim Tom Jordan
14:55 - 15:10 Overdue? (PDF, 623KB) Dave Jackson
15:10 - 15:20 Explaining the paleo-hiatus Morgan Page
15:20 - 15:25 Hiatus probability – two approaches (PDF, 1.4MB) Glenn Biasi
15:25 - 15:45 Discussion All
15:45 - 16:00 Break  
  Session 5: Future Directions
Max Werner (moderator) and Bill Savran (reporter)		  
16:00 - 16:45 Break-out sessions:
  • Lessons from the Ridgecrest sequence for OEF & CSEP
  • Testing ground motion hazard models and components
  • Assessment of the prototype CSEP2 tests
 All
16:45 - 17:00 Discussion: Workshop Recommendations and Future Plans All
17:00 Workshop Adjourns  

This workshop is held prior to the 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting.

It is SCEC policy to foster harassment-free environments wherever our science is conducted. By accepting an invitation to participate in a SCEC-supported event, by email or online registration, participants agree to abide by the SCEC Activities Code of Conduct.

PARTICIPANTS

Aybige Akinci (INGV)
José A. Bayona Viveros (GFZ)
Yehuda Ben-Zion (USC/SCEC)
Glenn Biasi (USGS)
Michael Blanpied (USGS)
Camilla Cattania (Stanford)
Kelian Dascher-Cousineau (UCSC)
Ahmed Elbanna (U Illinois)
Giuseppe Falcone (INGV)
Ned Field (USGS)
Jeanne Hardebeck (USGS)
Dave Jackson (UCLA)
Changsheng Jiang (CEA)
Thomas Jordan (USC)
Andrea Llenos (USGS)
Phil Maechling (USC)
Simone Mancini (BGS/Bristol)
Andy Michael (USGS)
Kevin Milner (USC/SCEC)
Negar Nazari (Berkshire Insurance)
Yosi Ogata (ISM)
Morgan Page (USGS)
David Rhoades (GNS)
Bill Savran (USC/SCEC)
Bruce Shaw (Columbia)
Mark Stirling (Otago)
Luis Vazquez (USC)
Max Werner (Bristol)
Yongxiang Zhang (CEA)
Bruce Zhou (USC)