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SCEC Workshop on Evaluation of Seismic Hazard Models with Fragile Geologic Features

Applications Due: August 7, 2019
Participants: 40 maximum (by application)
Date: September 8, 2019
Location: Hilton Palm Springs Resort
SCEC Award: 19187

Conveners: Mark Stirling and Mike Oskin

SUMMARY: This workshop is being held in recognition of the growing body of work on the use of fragile geologic features (FGFs) to evaluate probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) models, and the emergence of different methods of application and evaluation.

Key issues we would like to see addressed include the following:

  1. What are the attributes of a useful FGF for PSH model assessment?
  2. How should FGF fragilities and age estimates be developed?
  3. What methods of FGF-PSH model evaluation are currently available or could be developed?
  4. What range of expertise could meaningfully contribute to improving the FGF-PSH model evaluation methods in existence at present?
  5. What do we need to do in order to develop formal guidelines for FGF-PSH evaluation?

We will bring together scientists possessing experience in studies of FGFs, and scientists not currently involved in FGF work but possessing relevant expertise. The following examples come to mind: geology and surficial processes that lead to the formation and identification of FGFs; alternative methods for fragility and age estimation; statistical methods of PSH model evaluation; and experience with the setting of guidelines criteria. We seek a clear definition of the state of the art of FGF-PSH model evaluation, and identification of the work and resources needed in order to achieve defensible evaluation methods for industry application.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.


08:30 - 09:00 Workshop Check-In  
09:00 - 09:10 Session 1: Introduction
Mike Oskin & Mark Stirling
  • Growing the FGF research community
  • Developing multiple methods for FGF dating & fragility analysis
  • Developing consensus methods for hazard evaluation
  Session 2: Geomorphology & Dating
Mike Oskin & Mark Stirling
09:10 - 09:15 Ethical considerations for FGF research Lisa Grant-Ludwig
09:15 - 09:20 Exposure dating of precariously-balanced rocks Dylan Rood
09:20 - 09:25 Fragile sea-stacks in the Pacific Northwest Devin McPhillips
09:25 - 09:30 A Probabilistic Approach to Dating Fragile Geomorphic Features? (PDF, 2.7MB) Mike Oskin / Veronica Prush
09:30 - 10:00 Discussion
  • Cost-benefit of approaches
  • Landscape evolution-based age constraints
  • Beyond PBRs: FGF dating
10:00 - 10:20 Break  
  Session 3: Fragility
Mike Oskin & Mark Stirling
10:25 - 10:30 2D traits & 3D models Ramon Arrowsmith
10:30 - 10:35 Geometry data acquisition & fragility Christine Wittich
10:35 - 10:40 Toppling analysis of precarious objects using rigid-body dynamics Swetha Veeraraghavan
10:40 - 10:45 PBR responses to seismograms Richard Brune
10:45 - 10:50 Shallow ambient rock stress, topography, & non-traditional FGFs (PDF, 650KB) Norman Sleep
10:50 - 11:15 Discussion
  • Value of PGA, vs PGA+PGV vs full waveform-based fragility assessment
  • Fragility uncertainty reduction
  • Assessing fragility of non-PBR FGFs
  Session 4: Hazard Evaluation
Mike Oskin & Mark Stirling
11:15 - 11:20 Using FGFs to inform ground motion hazard (PDF, 2.6MB) Albert Kottke
11:20 - 11:25 Clyde Dam, New Zealand case study (PDF, 2.4MB) Mark Stirling
11:25 - 11:30 Hazard evaluation with PBRs: example from central CA Anna Caklais
11:30 - 11:35 Australian FGFs and past ground motions Tamarah King
11:35 - 11:40 Application of FGFs to dynamic rupture modeling Julian Lozos
11:40 - 12:00 Discussion
  • Single- vs multi-PBR fragility model
  • FGF evaluation in a diversity of geomorphic settings
  • Using FGF constraints to improve PSH models
12:00 Adjourn  

This workshop is held prior to the 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting.

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*Remote Participants