SCEC Workshop on Predictive Skill Across Tectonic Settings and Planning CSEP 2.0
Conveners: Maximilian Werner (chair), Thomas Jordan, Warner Marzocchi, Andy Michael, David Rhoades, and Hiroshi Tsuruoka
Date: September 8, 2018
Location: Palm Springs, CA
Participation: 30 maximum
SCEC Award: 18147
SUMMARY: The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is holding a 1-day workshop with representatives from the SCEC community, the global CSEP community, the USGS and other international government agencies responsible for informing the public about seismic hazards. CSEP is planning a new phase of earthquake forecast experiments (“CSEP2.0”) that expand the current model and data space, placing new demands on CSEP software. A major focus of the workshop will be the development of experiments that enable insightful evaluations of recent models, e.g. the USGS models for operational earthquake forecasting, as well as tailored experiments for specific scientific questions. Discussion topics will include: blueprints for new retrospective and prospective experiments, required methods for model evaluation and comparison, CSEP software design, international collaboration and software development, CSEP1.0 data and legacy.
Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2018
08:30 - 09:00 | Workshop Check-In | |
Session 1: Overview, Motivation, and Desired Outcomes | ||
09:00 - 09:10 | Welcome and Overview of Workshop Objectives (PDF, 257KB) | Max Werner |
09:10 - 09:20 | Status of CSEP Operations and Plans | Bill Savran |
09:20 - 09:30 | SCEC perspectives of CSEP2 objectives (PDF, 623KB) | John Vidale |
09:30 - 09:40 | USGS perspectives on CSEP2 objectives | Andy Michael |
09:40 - 09:50 | International collaboration: European RISE proposal | Max Werner |
09:50 - 10:20 | Discussion:
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All |
10:20 - 10:30 | Break | |
Session 2: Planning new CSEP experiments I | ||
10:30 - 10:40 | Experiments for Reasenberg-Jones models | Jeanne Hardebeck |
10:40 - 10:50 | Experiments for Fast-ETAS | Nicholas van der Elst |
10:50 - 11:00 | Experiments for UCERF3-ETAS (PDF, 1.4MB) | Ned Field |
11:00 - 11:10 | Testing forecasts specified as synthetic catalogs (PDF, 193KB) | David Rhoades |
11:10 - 12:00 | Discussion:
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All |
12:00 - 13:00 | Lunch | |
Session 3: Planning new CSEP experiments II | ||
13:00 - 13:10 | Perspectives from CSEP New Zealand (PDF, 276KB) | Matt Gerstenberger |
13:10 - 13:20 | Perspectives from CSEP Japan | Jiancang Zhuang |
13:20 - 13:30 | Perspectives from CSEP China (PDF, 5.1MB) | Angie (Yongxian) Zhang |
13:30 - 13:40 | Perspectives from CSEP Italy | Max Werner |
13:40 - 14:20 | Discussion:
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All |
14:20 - 14:30 | Break | |
Session 4: Testing Forecasts of Finite Ruptures on Faults | ||
14:30 - 14:40 | Status of RSQSim forecasting | Tom Jordan |
14:40 - 14:50 | Experiments for testing finite rupture forecasts | Dave Jackson |
14:50 - 15:20 | Discussion:
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All |
15:20 - 15:30 | Break | |
Session 5: Prototyping experiments | ||
15:30 - 16:30 | Group 1: Testing synthetic-catalog forecasts Group 2: Testing finite rupture forecasts (including against model simulations) Group 3: Other experiments (b-values, foreshocks etc) Group 4: Software design, international collaboration, external forecasts |
All |
16:30 - 17:00 | Discussion: Group feedback | All |
17:00 - 17:30 | Discussion: Workshop recommendations and future plans | All |
17:30 | Workshop Adjourns |
PARTICIPANTS
Ray Chiou (NAVFAC)
Ned Field (USGS)
Matt Gerstenberger (GNS Sci)
Jacquelyn Gilchrist (USC)
Jeanne Hardebeck (USGS)
Wei Hua (CEA/China)
David Jackson (UCLA)
Tom Jordan (USC)
Andrea Llenos (USGS)
Guojie Meng (CEA/China)
Andy Michael (USGS)
Negar Nazari (Berkshire Hathaway)
Yosihiko Ogata (ISM)
Morgan Page (USGS)
David Rhoades (GNS Sci)
William Savran (SCEC/USC)
Bruce Shaw (Columbia)
Nicholas van der Elst (USGS)
John Vidale (USC)
Wuxing Wang (CEA/China)
Max Werner (Bristol)
Yanqiang Wu (CEA/China)
Xiaodong Zhang (CEA/China)
Yongxian (Angie) Zhang (CENC)
Jiancang Zhuang (ISM/Japan)
This workshop is held prior to the 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting.