Conveners: Maximilian Werner, Thomas Jordan, Warner Marzocchi, Andy Michael, and David Rhoades
Date: September 9, 2017
Location: Palm Springs, CA
SCEC Award and Report: 17175

SUMMARY: The goal of this joint SCEC/USGS/CSEP workshop is to inform scientific debates about the predictability of earthquakes through CSEP results. Our objectives are to present available global CSEP results and to analyze their bearing on ongoing contentious debates in the seismological community. Targeted debates include: 1) How do magnitude distributions differ on-fault and off-fault? 2) Does the b-value vary in space and/or time? 3) How do strain rates map into earthquake rates? 4) Does the spatial distribution of small earthquakes help forecast large earthquakes? 5) What is the predictive skill of the Coulomb stress hypothesis? 6) What are maximum magnitudes on fault segments? 7) How does elastic rebound manifest itself in earthquake clustering? 8) How should ensemble models be constructed to provide optimal forecasts in an operational setting?

This focused, by invitation-only workshop will bring together members of the global CSEP community, SCEC scientists and IT personal and USGS representatives. The program will emphasize the CSEP nodes in California, New Zealand, Italy and Japan, and conclude with a session on future directions.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2017

PARTICIPANTS

*Participants to be confirmed