CONVENER: Tom Jordan

OVERVIEW: SCEC received a three-year grant from the W. M. Keck Foundation to construct a Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) that will provide a unique environment for developing large-scale numerical models that can simulate sequences of fault ruptures and the seismic shaking they produce. The goal of CISM is to equip earthquake scientists with HPC-enabled cyberinfrastructure that creates a new generation of comprehensive, physics-based earthquake forecasts using the California fault system as their primary test bed.

CISM will provide a computational framework for combining earthquake simulations, which account for the physics of earthquake nucleation and stress transfer, with ground-motion prediction models derived from simulations of seismic wave excitation and propagation. CISM will be engineered as a workflow-oriented cyberinfrastructure with common tools for integrating various types of scientific software modules provided by different research teams into well-structured forecasting models that can be calibrated against existing data and tested against observations within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Validated CISM forecasting models will be contributed to the USGS’s program of operational earthquake forecasting.

CISM will feature a petascale shared file system with high-bandwidth gateways connected to NSF and DOE high-performance computing resources, which will support the massive calculations required for CISM simulations and modeling. The software development process will focus on quickly establishing end-to-end processing capabilities and initiating an iterative cycle of software development that will expand and elaborate the CISM system.

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SEPTEMBER 11, 2016

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