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SCEC San Gorgonio Pass SFSA Workshop

Conveners: Michele Cooke (UMass), David Oglesby (UCR), Doug Yule (CSUN)
Dates: September 6, 2014 (08:00 – 18:00)
Location: Hilton Palm Springs Resort, Palm Springs, CA
Attendees: By application only
SCEC Award and Report: 14064

OVERVIEW: The San Gorgonio Pass has been established as a SCEC Special Fault Study Area (SFSA) in order to coordinate research efforts and foster interaction between the different projects. With input from the community at a 2012 workshop we established the goals and science plan for the San Gorgonio Pass SFSA and established the following questions as priorities:

  • What is the probability of a through-going San Andreas rupture? A definitive answer to this question has fundamental implications for forecasting the earthquake hazard in southern California. Related to the potential for earthquakes rupturing through the San Gorgonio Pass are other questions:
  • What is the subsurface geometry of active faulting through the San Gorgonio Pass? In order to best predict potential rupture through the San Gorgonio “knot” and ground motions we need to know the active fault configuration.
  • What is the earthquake potential in the San Gorgonio Pass region? If fault geometry, stressing rates and slip rates are known, then we will be able to develop more accurate earthquake models, which will in turn produce better estimates of earthquake size, earthquake interactions, ground motion, and seismic hazard.

We will hold a full-day workshop in conjunction with the 2014 SCEC Annual Meeting in Palm Springs. The workshop will kick off with a field trip to the northern Coachella Valley. The afternoon of the workshop will feature short presentations on recent findings for the SFSA from researchers from the geophysics, paleoseismology, geomorphology, geodesy, mechanical modeling and rupture modeling communities. Significant discussion time will focus on how we are addressing the three key questions for the San Gorgonio Pass SFSA, any obstacles to achieving the goals that were formulated in 2012 and fine-tuning the science plan. The results of this workshop and field trip will be renewed and optimized research goals and collaborations for the next year of the SFSA and beyond.

The field trip will take participants to the northern Coachella Valley, where the San Andreas fault splits to the north to the Mission Creek, the Garnet Hill and the Banning strands of the San Andreas fault. The subsurface geometry of the Garnet Hill and Banning strands were the topic of much discussion at the 2012 SGP Workshop. Micro seismicity provides some constraints into potential structure but alternative interpretations fit the data (Carena et al., 2004; Nicholson et al., 2013). Meanwhile crustal deformation models (Fattaruso et al., 2013 SCEC) show that the changes in fault geometry greatly affect deformation in the area where these faults branch so that resolving this uncertainty is a high priority of the San Gorgonio Pass SFSA. Much needed new strike-slip rates along the Garnet Hill fault may be available from new trench that is planned for January 2014. Visiting this site as well as a site with recent slip rates along the Banning strand will provide great settings for discussions of the roles of the Garnet Hill and Banning strands within the SAF system. Furthermore, new strike-slip rates on the Mission Creek strand challenge our thinking about this strand of the SAF. Recent slip rates of ~20 mm/yr (Blisniuk et al., 2013) are higher than previous estimates (Fumal et al, 2002), and higher than rates from crustal deformation models (Cooke and Dair, 2011; Fattaruso et al., 2013). Furthermore, new evidence points to a northeast dip to the Coachella Valley segment of the SAF (Fuis et al. 2012; Lindsey and Fialko, 2013). Changing the dip of the Coachella Valley segment of the SAF from vertical to northeast dipping alters the partitioning of slip amongst the strands north of the trifurcation (Fattaruso et al., 2013). The sensitivity of deformation to active fault geometry in the northern Coachella Valley is striking and highlights the need for more data gathering.

PARTICIPANTS: Nicolas Barth (UC Riverside), Whitney Behr (UT Austin), Yehuda Ben-Zion (USC), Scott Bennett (USGS), Glenn Biasi (UNR), Kim Blisniuk (UC Berkeley), Jose Cardona (CSUN), Judi Chester (Texas A&M), John Conrad (UCR), Michele Cooke (UMass), Tim Dawson (CGS), Ian Desjarlais (California State University, Northridge), Daniel Elizondo (Texas A&M University), Tom Freeman (GeoPentech), Gary Fuis (USGS), Thomas Goebel (Caltech), Peter Gold (UT Austin), Jessica Grenader (USC), Alex Hatem (USC), Dick Heermance (CSUN), Ann Hislop (University of Kentucky), Brittany Huerta (CSUN), Susanne Janecke (Utah State), Kaitlyn Jones (CSUN), Frank Jordan, Jr. (DOGGR), Katherine Kendrick (USGS), Vicki Langenheim (USGS), Julian Lozos (Stanford/USGS), Dave Lynch (USGS), Betsy Madden (UMass-Amherst), Jon Matti (USGS), Sally McGill (CSUSB), Alex Morelan (UC Davis), Corrie Neighbors (UCR), Craig Nicholson (UCSB), David Oglesby (UCR), Mike Oskin (UC Davis), Bob Powell (USGS), Hannah Riegel (CSUN), Chris Rollins (Caltech), Kate Scharer (USGS), Gordon Seitz (California Geological Survey), Jacob Selander (UC Davis), Warren Sharp (BGC), Zheqiang Shi (SDSU), Kerry Sieh (NTU/EOS), Josh Spinler (Arizona), Kathleen Springer (San Bernardino County Museum), Aviel Stern (UMASS), Tarra Thompson (CalState LA), Jerry Treiman (CGS), Louis Wersan (Indiana University), Lisa Wolff (CSUN), Doug Yule (CSUN), Robert Zinke (USC)


08:00 sharp Depart Hilton lobby (everyone should grab box breakfast and register beforehand)  
08:30-09:15 Stop 1 - Mission Creek strand at Pushawalla Canyon Blisniuk et al.
09:45-10:30 Stop 2 - Banning strand west of Hwy 62 Behr et al.
11:00-11:45 Stop 3 - Mission Creek strand at Mission Creek Preserve Kendrick et al.
12:30 Return to Hilton lobby  
13:00-14:00 Lunch at Hilton  
14:00-14:10 Summary of field trip discussion and outline of talks and goals M. Cooke, D. Yule, D. Oglesby
14:10-14:30 Fault activity in the San Gorgonio Pass K. Kendrick, J. Matti
14:30-14:50 Megatrench Results D. Yule, K. Scharer, D. Heermance
14:50-15:10 Observations of Activity of the Mill Creek Strand and Uplift of Yucaipa Ridge A. Morelan, M. Oskin, J. Chester
15:10-15:30 GPS Analysis J. Spinler, R. Bennett, S. McGill
15:30-15:50 Shallow 3D Structure in the San Gorgonio Pass D. Oglesby
15:50-16:10 Break  
16:10-16:30 Assessing Fault Geometry from Seismicity C. Nicholson
16:30-16:50 Impact of Fault Geometry within the San Gorgonio Pass on Deformation M. Cooke
16:50-17:10 Stress Patterns from Seismicity T. Goebel, E. Hauksson
17:10-17:30 Dynamic Rupture Models along Irregular Faults Z. Shi
17:30-17:50 How does the San Gorgonio Pass Fit into UCERF3? T. Dawson
17:50-18:00 Discussion of the Future of San Gorgonio Pass SFSA All

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