SCEC Community Workshop: Incorporating Geodetic Surface Deformation Data into UCERF3
Conveners: Kaj Johnson, Liz Hearn, David Sandwell, and Wayne Thatcher
Dates: April 1-2, 2010
Location: Kellogg West Conference Center and Lodge, Pomona, CA
WORKSHOP REPORT: Download workshop report
SUMMARY: The purpose of the workshop is to begin scientific consideration of how to incorporate GPS constraints on strain rates and fault slip rates into the next generation California earthquake hazard assessment ("UCERF3"). A principal outcome of the meeting will be (1) an assessment of secure science ready for UCERF3 applications, and (2) an agenda of new research objectives for SCEC in support of UCERF3 and related probabilistic hazard assessments.
The format of the workshop includes three topical sessions, with limited number of invited presentations scheduled and lots of open discussion time, and an evening poster session. Time is allotted for groups to discuss main scientific issues:
- Earthquake cycle deformation and influence of postseismic transients
- Strain rate map methodologies and issues
- Block modeling methodologies and GPS fault slip rate estimation
- Reconciliation of differing GPS fault slip and strain rate estimates
All participants were requested to submit poster presentation. A small number of short (~5 minute) presentations were solicited from the submitted poster abstracts.
Actual (e.g. SCEC CMM4 GPS field) or synthetic test data sets were distributed prior to the workshop for modeling test cases. Kinematic and dynamical fault modelers, strain rate mappers, and block modelers thus were able to run their codes to supply outputs for discussion at the workshop.
PARTICIPANTS: Duncan Agnew (UCSD), Sean Baxter (NASA JPL), John Beavan (GNS Science), Rick Bennett (Arizona), Peter Bird (UCLA), Jayne Bormann (UNR), Tim Dawson (CGS), Jim Dieterich (UCR), James Dolan (USC), Yuri Fialko (UCSD), Ned Field (USGS), Brad Hager (MIT), Bill Hammond (UNR), Elizabeth Hearn (UBC), Tom Herring (MIT), Eric Hetland (Michigan), Bill Holt (Stony Brook), Benjamin Hooks (Texas at El Paso), Tran Huynh (USC), David Jackson (UCLA), Kaj Johnson (Indiana), Tom Jordan (USC), Sharon Kedar (NASA JPL), Jack Loveless (Harvard), Scott Marshall (App State), Stephane Mazzotti (GSC), Rob McCaffrey (RPI), Brendan Meade (Harvard), Jessica Murray-Moraleda (USGS), Marleen Nyst (RMS), Mike Oskin (UC Davis), John Platt (USC), Fred Pollitz (USGS), Tom Rockwell (SDSU), Takeshi Sagiya (Nagoya U), David Sandwell (UCSD), Gina Schmalzle (Washington), David Schwartz (USGS), Zheng-Kang Shen (UCLA), Bridget Smith-Konter (Texas at El Paso), Wayne Thatcher (USGS), Laura Wallace (GNS Science), Ray Weldon (Oregon), Yuehua Zeng (USGS)
DAY 1: Thursday, April 1, 2010 | ||
Introductory Remarks | ||
08:00 | Workshop goals, format, and desired outcomes | Wayne Thatcher |
08:20 | Purpose of UCERF3 and potential role of space geodesy | Ned Field |
08:40 | Questions and Discussion | |
Session 1. Strain Rate Mapping Methodologies and Issues | David Sandwell | |
09:00 | The science of constructing strain rate maps | David Sandwell |
09:30 | Open Discussion | |
10:00 | Selected Short Contributions (each 5 mins max, Hammond, Smith-Konter, Loveless, Shen, and Tom Herring) | |
10:30 | Break | |
10:45 | Results of community modeling exercise | David Sandwell |
11:15 | Open Discussion of community modeling results | Thorsten Becker, Peter Bird, Andy Freed, Jack Loveless, Bill Holt, Sharon Kedar, Cornee Kreemer, Rob McCaffrey, Fred Pollitz, Bridget Smith-Konter, Carl Tape, Yuehua Zeng |
12:00 | Lunch | |
Session 2. GPS Fault Slip Rate Estimation from Block Models | Kaj Johnson | |
13:00 | Block modeling overview | Kaj Johnson |
13:15 | Fault geometry and elastic block models | Brendan Meade |
13:30 | NeoKinema Model predictions for California strain and slip rates | Peter Bird |
13:45 | Open Discussion | |
14:45 | Selected Short Contributions (each 5 mins max, Laura Wallace, Takeshi Sagiya, Wayne Thatcher, and Yuehua Zeng) | |
14:45 | Break | |
15:00 | Selected Short Contributions (each 5 mins max, Rob McCaffrey, Bill Hammond/Jayne Bormann) | |
15:15 | Results of community modeling exercise | Kaj Johnson |
15:30 | Open Discussion of community modeling results | |
16:00 | Breakout sessions
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17:00 | Adjourn | |
18:00 | Dinner | |
19:00 | Poster Session (2 hours) | |
DAY 2: Friday, April 2, 2010 | ||
Session 3. Earthquake Cycle and Other Effects on Interseismic Deformation | Liz Hearn | |
08:00 | How much do earthquake cycles effects influence geodetic estimates of stressing and fault slip rates? | Liz Hearn |
08:30 | Physics-based models of interseismic deformation: What physics is relevant? | Yuri Fialko |
09:00 | Open Discussion | |
09:30 | Selected Short Contributions (each 5 mins max, Gina Schmalze, Brad Hager) | |
10:00 | Break | |
10:30 | Results of community modeling exercise | Liz Hearn Hetland, Meade, Smith-Konter, Johnson, Fialko, Hearn |
11:00 | Open Discussion of community modeling results | |
11:30 | Reports of breakout group chairs | |
12:00 | Lunch | |
13:00 | Invited Presentation: Geologic slip rate estimation | Ray Weldon |
13:30 | Discussion: Geologic and GPS slip rates -- What next? | |
14:00 | Wrap-Up Session: Directed Discussion
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Wayne Thatcher, Kaj Johnson, Liz Hearn, David Sandwell |
15:00 | Workshop Adjourn | |
15:30 | Conveners meet to draft Workshop Summary (1.5 hours) |