Home  /  Workshops  /  2007 Annual Meeting: SoSAFE Workshop

2007 Annual Meeting: SoSAFE Workshop

2007 Annual Meeting: SoSAFE Workshop
Dates: January 8-9, 2007
Location: Andrus Gerontology Center (Room 224); Davidson Conference Center
Organizer: Ken Hudnut

The Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project will better define the past 2000 years of earthquake occurrence as well as slip rates on the fault system. One year ago, the initial meeting of SoSAFE set this new SCEC special project in motion. Since that time, new USGS funding and support from the core SCEC budget have combined to allow several important studies to begin along the San Andreas Fault, some results of which will be presented at this workshop. At a science workshop held Jan. 8-9, 2007, to commemorate the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, priorities for the next year were discussed and planning began for an ambitious collaborative proposal. Improvements are being made in event chronologies at key sites, as well as in event correlations between sites, and crucial data gaps along the fault are starting to be filled. Coordinated studies employing novel dating methods emphasize cross-validation of methods and field sampling techniques to gain a better understanding of actual uncertainties in geologically estimated slip rates over time spans of up to several tens of thousands of years. At this year's workshop, further discussion and planning will take place and the SoSAFE investigator community is welcomed to participate and engage in this discussion and planning work.


January 8: Andrus Gerontology Center (Room 224)  
9:30 Continental Breakfast  
10:00 Introduction to the SoSAFE Project Workshop: Ken Hudnut, USGS
10:00 SoSAFE Workshop Objectives, Format and Agenda  
10:30 Question & Answer about Funding Issues, etc.  
10:40 Group Discussion of SoSAFE Elements:  
10:45 Carrizo Group Lisa Grant, UCI
11:00 Mojave Group Tom Fumal, USGS
11:15 San Bernardino Group Sally McGill, CSUSB
11:30 Coachella Valley Group Gordon Seitz, SDSU
11:45 Initial Q&A on the San Andreas  
12:00 Lunch -- continue to discuss San Andreas during lunch  
13:00 Group Discussion of SoSAFE Elements:  
13:00 San Jacinto Fault Zone Group Susanne Janecke, Utah State
13:15 Initial Q&A on the San Jacinto (and SAF, cont'd)  
13:30 GeoEarthScope David Phillips, UNAVCO
13:45 Radiocarbon Dating, etc. (emphasizing event dates) Gordon Seitz, SDSU
14:00 U-Series Dating (emphasizing long-term slip rates) Warren Sharp, BGC
14:15 B4: High-Res. LiDAR Data for the SoSAFE Project Ken Hudnut, USGS
14:30 GEON LiDAR Workflow for B4 Data Access Ramon Arrowsmith, ASU
14:45 Group Discussion on all SoSAFE Elements  
15:30 Coffee & Tea  
15:45 Discussion of Future Collaborative Proposals:  
  Collaborative Proposal Development Tom Jordan, SCEC/USC and Ken Hudnut, USGS
17:45 Set dates for meetings & next SoSAFE Workshop  
18:00 Go around the room & adjourn  
Day 2: Davidson Conference Center  
7:00 Continental Breakfast (Board Room)  
8:00 "Shift Happens – Dare to Prepare" Press Conference (Embassy Ballroom)  
8:00 Commemoration of the 1857 Fort Tejon Earthquake  
8:50 "Secure Your Space" Shake Trailer Demonstration (Outside Davidson)  
9:10 Discussion time for interaction between policy-makers, emergency responders, and scientists  
10:00 The SoSAFE Project Workshop (continued):  
10:00 Introductory Remarks Pat Leahy
10:05 The USGS Multi-Hazards Initiative Lucy Jones, USGS
10:25 SoSAFE and the Mw7.8 'ShakeOut' Scenario Ken Hudnut, USGS
10:45 Scenario Modeling Lessons from '1906' Experience; Movie Brad Aagaard, USGS
11:05 Modeling Great San Andreas Event Ground Motions Tom Jordan, SCEC/USC
11:25 Will Buildings Collapse? Swami Krishnan, Caltech
11:45 Development Along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults: the Alquist-Priolo Act Jerry Treiman, CGS
12:05 Lunch Break  
13:00 Uncertainty in Geodetic Slip Rate Estimation Rick Bennett, Arizona
13:20 Historical Accounts of the 1857 Earthquake Duncan Agnew, UCSD
13:40 1857 and Earlier Slip Events in the Carrizo Plain Lisa Grant, UCI
14:00 Statistical Analysis of Paleo-Earthquake Data Glenn Biasi, UNR
14:20 The San Bernardino Section -- Complexities Sally McGill, CSUSB
14:40 Discussion Topics:
  • Tuning and finalizing the Mw7.8 scenario event slip distribution, fault geometry, etc.
  • What to do in case of no SoSAFE funds (or various levels of cuts) in FY07? (definitely will need to recommend priority of work and funding levels to the SCEC Planning Committee for Jan. 15 mtg.)
  • How broad can SoSAFE afford to be? Must we focus on 'A1' SCEC Science Priority Objective?
  • What are scientific priorities of this community?
  • What group resources are needed? (e.g., travel support for field coordination, computers to make use of B4 Project LIDAR data, geochronology sample preparation facilities, shoring, other?)
16:45 Confirm future meeting dates, and go around the room  
17:00 Adjourn