An Update on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)

Maximilian J. Werner, William H. Savran, Philip J. Maechling, Thomas H. Jordan, Danijel Schorlemmer, David A. Rhoades, Warner Marzocchi, & John Yu

Published August 15, 2019, SCEC Contribution #9842, 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #030

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports an international effort to conduct and rigorously evaluate earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP has concluded its first phase of testing (CSEP1) with testing centers operating in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 442 models under prospective evaluation. CSEP1 experiments evaluate forecasts expressed as expected rates in small space-magnitude bins that can be updated at regular intervals (e.g., daily or yearly). This experiment design is simple and allows a wide range of models to participate. However, recently developed forecast models, including candidate models for governmental Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), can simulate thousands of synthetic seismicity catalogs (stochastic event sets), which express important dependency structures between triggered earthquakes. In addition, some models, such as the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), forecast finite ruptures on specified faults. As part of CSEP’s second phase (CSEP2), we have redesigned CSEPs software system to support the testing of such model classes and implemented new evaluations based on the full distribution provided by the forecasts. We have begun a retrospective experiment of UCERF3-ETAS for each major aftershock sequence in California since 1984. In addition to traditional (ETAS-type) forecasts, machine learning based forecasts and forecasts derived from earthquake simulators pose new challenges for forecast evaluation. CSEP plans to expand its testing class to accommodate these types of forecasts. Requirements include access to high-performance computing, distributed processing of forecasts and evaluations, and simplifying data management, as well as adhering to CSEP’s principles of transparency and reproducibility within a controlled, open-source software environment.

Key Words
earthquake forecasting, seismic hazard, earthquake triggering

Citation
Werner, M. J., Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., & Yu, J. (2019, 08). An Update on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)