UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES IN EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
| ABOUT | GRAND CHALLENGES | INTERNS | PROJECTS |
Summary |
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 California is experiencing an “earthquake drought”: no ground-rupturing earthquake has occurred during the last century on the principal faults of the San Andreas system. The 2019 Grand Challenge will focus on two main research questions: (1) Is a hiatus of 100 years or longer consistent with earthquake forecasting models? (2) What are the implications of the hiatus for future earthquake activity in California? Your investigations will focus on the following tasks: Estimate the probability of such a hiatus from two earthquake forecasting models, (a) the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) and (b) earthquake catalogs generated by running the RSQSim rupture simulator.Calculate both state-independent and state-dependent probabilities. Condition the state-dependent probabilities on the occurrence of large earthquakes on the northern (1906-type) and southern (1857-type) San Andreas Fault during the 50-100 years before the hiatus. Assess the chances of large California earthquakes that might occur during the next 30 years using (i) frequencies computed directly from RSQSim catalogs and (ii) probabilities computed by applying machine-learning techniques to RSQSim catalogs. They will also illustrate these 30-year probabilities with representative scenarios that include estimates of expected ground motions, economic losses, and human casualties. |
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Challenge Statement |
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| Estimate the probability of such a hiatus from two earthquake forecasting models, (a) the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) and (b) earthquake catalogs generated by running the RSQSim rupture simulator. Calculate both state-independent and state-dependent probabilities. Condition the state-dependent probabilities on the occurrence of large earthquakes on the northern (1906-type) and southern (1857-type) San Andreas Fault during the 50-100 years before the hiatus. Assess the chances of large California earthquakes that might occur during the next 30 years using (i) frequencies computed directly from RSQSim catalogs and (ii) probabilities computed by applying machine-learning techniques to RSQSim catalogs. They will also illustrate these 30-year probabilities with representative scenarios that include estimates of expected ground motions, economic losses, and human casualties. |
Intern Class of 2019
Project Teams
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Forecasting and Simulation Team
Task: Finding Probabilities of Major Earthquakes after a 100-year Drought Team: Giselle Mondragon, Terri Tang, Laura Davey, Malka Lazerson, Amabel Teca, Vanessa Carpio, Ruben Li Wu Mentors: Scott Callaghan, Kevin Milner |
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SCEC-VDO Team
Task: Developing Visualizations of Earthquake Droughts on the San Andreas Fault System Team: Gina Yang, Joses Galdamez, Afe Addeh, Brandon O'Neil Mentors: Kevin Milner, John Yu, Harsh Waghela |
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Machine Learning Team
Team: Jared Santa Maria, Julie Pastorino, Alexei Shatz, Yuner Lu, Daniel Molina, Yonatan Gugsa Mentors: William Savran |
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Hazard and Risk Visualization Team
Team: Jose Rico, Shreya Agrawal, Haydee Portillo, Suzie Duran, Stephanie Soto, Elvis Carrillo Mentors: Gabriela Noriega
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