| Our 2017 interns were tasked to develop a computational system for the probabilistic forecasting of earthquake sequences in Southern California using long seismicity catalogs generated on the Blue Waters supercomputer by the RSQSim rupture simulator. Using the system, they applied it to three initial-event scenarios: M6 Parkfield, M7 Mojave, M6 Bombay Beach and compared the simulator-based probabilities for large aftershocks (M ≥ 7) with the values given by the official Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3. Interns then selected multi-event scenarios that could threaten the Los Angeles region and illustrated their hazard and risk with sequence-specific maps of expected ground motions, economic losses, and human casualties. |
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| Develop a computational system for probabilistic forecasting of earthquake sequences in Southern California, apply the system to initial-event scenarios, compare the simulator-based probabilities against official data of large aftershocks from Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3), and illustrate the hazards and risks of multi-event scenarios that could threaten the Los Angeles with sequence-specific maps of expected ground motions, economic losses, and human casualties. |
