Conveners: Max Werner (Bristol), Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ), Tom Jordan (USC), Andy Michael (USGS), Morgan Page (USGS), Marco Pagani (GEM)
Dates: September 12, 2015 (09:00 – 17:00)
Location: Hilton Palm Springs Resort, Palm Springs, CA
Attendance: If interested in attending, please contact conveners
SCEC Award: 15166

OVERVIEW: This 1-day workshop is organized jointly by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The goals of the workshop are to strengthen collaborations on the evaluation of earthquake and ground-motion forecasting methods, to assess new CSEP results and to continue reshaping CSEP’s modus operandi to better address the evolving needs of the community. Several major themes will be covered. First, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) and its evaluation will be a major focus in light of on-going efforts in the US, in New Zealand, and in Italy. Second, the implications of epistemic uncertainty for forecasting (including automated ensemble modeling) and CSEP testing methods will be addressed. A third theme will be the predictability of fluid injection-induced seismicity. Finally, we will focus on recent research on hazard models testing and evaluation.

The workshop will bring together CSEP personnel, agency representatives, and scientists interested in the scientific and operational aspects of earthquake and ground motion forecasting and testing. This one-day workshop will include sessions on the following topics:

1. Overview of CSEP, OEF and hazard models:
   • Overview of CSEP and recent results
   • USGS perspectives on OEF, hazard and CSEP
   • GEM overview and perspectives on earthquake and ground motion forecasting and evaluating
   • CSEP and OEF in New Zealand, Japan, Italy and China
2. Evaluating earthquake forecast models:
   • Evaluating USGS models: UCERF2/3, the NSHMP and U3-ETAS
   • Evaluating GEM’s GEAR1 models and other global experiments
   • Evaluating physics-based and statistical OEF candidate models: the retrospective Canterbury, New Zealand, experiment
   • Status of prototype External Earthquake Forecast and Prediction (EFP) experiments: M8 and QuakeFinder algorithms
3. Seismic hazard models testing:
   • Methods for testing and evaluating hazard models
   • Ground-motion forecasts of USGS and GEM models
   • Results from GEM testing of GMPEs and IPEs
4. Injection-induced seismicity
   • USGS perspectives on induced hazard estimation
   • Overview of statistical and geomechanical forecast models of induced seismicity
   • The Salton Sea CSEP experiment prototype
   • Developing new experiments to evaluate induced seismicity forecasts

PARTICIPANTS: Celine Beauval (Grenoble), Greg Beroza (Stanford), Thomas Beutin (GFZ Potsdam), Mike Blanpied (USGS), Annemarie Christophersen (GNS New Zealand), Harmony Colella (ASU), Bill Ellsworth (USGS), Edward (Ned) Field (USGS), Naoshi Hirata (ERI), Dave Jackson (UCLA), Changsheng Jiang (CEA), Thomas Jordan (USC), Yan Kagan (UCLA), Masha Liukis (USC), Andrea Llenos (USGS), Philip Maechling (USC), Sam Mak (GFZ), Warner Marzocchi (INGV), Andy Michael (USGS), Kevin Milner (USC), Morgan Moschetti (USGS), Yosi Ogata (ISM), Takahiro Omi (ISM), Marco Pagani (GEM), Morgan Page (USGS), David Rhoades (GNS), Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ Potsdam), Bruce Shaw (Columbia), Mark Stirling (GNS), Anne Strader (UCLA), Matteo Taroni (INGV), Nicholas van der Elst (USGS), Debbie Weiser (USGS/UCLA), Max Werner (Bristol University), Yongxian Zhang (CEA China)

SEPTEMBER 12, 2015

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