Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World at the SSA annual meeting
Date: 12/21/2016
On behalf of Andy Michael, U.S. Geological Survey:
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Subject: Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World at the SSA annual meeting
Do you work on forecasting earthquakes in aftershock sequences or other earthquake clusters? If so, we encourage you to submit a presentation to our session on "Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World" at the SSA Annual Meeting in Denver, CO from April 18 to 20, 2017.
Abstract submission is now open on the meeting website: http://meetings.seismosoc.org/ and the deadline is 5:00 PM U.S. Pacific Standard Time (UTC −0800) on Wednesday 11 January, 2017.
We hope to see you in Denver!
Sincerely,
Andy Michael, USGS, USA
Matt Gerstenberger, IGNS, New Zealand
Warner Marzocchi, INGV, Italy
Forecasting Aftershock Sequences in the Real World
Over the last two years, seismologists have produced forecasts for a number of aftershock sequences including the ongoing Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake sequence which began in 2010 with the M7.0 Darfield event, the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake, the 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake, the 2016 M6.2 Amatrice, Italy, earthquake, the 2016 M5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, United States, earthquake, and earthquake swarms near San Ramon and Bombay Beach, California, United States. Each sequence has raised challenging situations for the calculation of earthquake probabilities and their communication to the public, emergency managers, and other users. As systems that make these forecasts on a routine basis become operational we need to capture these lessons in the numerical software and presentation methods. We invite presentations on the application of earthquake clustering problems to these real-world situations as well as discussions of challenges faced in modelling and communication of forecasts; this could include related advances in statistical seismology and the social science of communication.
Session Chairs
Andrew Michael <michael@usgs.gov>
Matt Gerstenberger <m.gerstenberger@gns.cri.nz>
Warner Marzocchi <warner.marzocchi@ingv.it>
