Earthquake predictability SSA special session

Dear Colleagues,

With the SSA meeting abstract deadline quickly approaching, we encourage you to join us (in Hawaii!) for what promises to be a stimulating session.

Hot for Hawaii,

Jeremy Zechar, Danijel Schorlemmer, and Tom Jordan

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ADVENTURES IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENTS
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Earthquake forecasting research is gradually shifting focus from a course of seeking precursory signals that might allow earthquake warnings to a course of quantifying predictability of earthquake processes. The latter approach emphasizes system-level understanding of earthquake physics and thus a cooperative effort is natural. In addition to this change in focus, researchers can leverage new, high-quality datasets (e.g., GPS and relocated seismicity) and consensus models (e.g., models of fault structure and seismic velocity). These developments enable and encourage collaborative, experiment-based investigations. This approach to elucidating the nature of earthquake predictability presents a new set of opportunities and challenges; these shall be the focus of this session. Submissions should address one or more of the following issues as they relate to earthquake predictability: status of current (and plans for future) regional and global experiments; integration of new data and application of new models; methods for testing and evaluation (with an emphasis on comparative approaches).

Conveners:
Jeremy Zechar, Danijel Schorlemmer, Thomas Jordan
{zechar, danijel, tjordan} @usc.edu
Department of Earth Sciences
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA 90089