Conveners: Ned Field and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
Dates: June 8, 2011
Location: Embassy Suites Mandalay Beach, Oxnard, CA

Summary: This workshop will address what represents both “best-available science” and implementable models with respect to time-dependent probabilities in our UCERF3 operational forecast.  Of particular emphasis here will be how to apply elastic rebound in un-segmented fault models, how to represent spatiotemporal clustering (e.g., ETAS), and the interpretation of the empirical model (apparent seismicity rate changes).